We are a leading expert in advanced air mobility demand modelling, system planning and infrastructure design.
Our clients portfolio comprises OEMs, airports, airlines, infrastructure investors, governments and more.
Our aim is to help our clients assess the potential that AAM revolution will bring to their business.
Below a list of core services we offer.
AAM Demand Modelling & Scheduling
Within the current commercial aviation system, we benefit from a long history of activity that we can assess and develop forecasts. However, there are specific challenges associated with undertaking demand modelling of potential electric aviation services. Those are:
Electric aviation is likely to take place at smaller airports and new vertiports where there have traditionally been no scheduled services.
Thinner routes are likely to be more sustainable increasing attractiveness to start up electric airlines.
Lack of origin and destination data coupled with purpose of trip will slow the identification of new routes.
Electric aviation traffic has the potential to induce new users to services in areas that have not had access to air travel.
Early adopters are likely to increase demand beyond what would normally be expected.
To mitigate those challenges we have adopted a whole new approach in assessing potential markets for new AAM services by utilizing mobility data. Mobility data offers an opportunity to better understand the travel patterns of the travelling public on a country basis that is ideal for sub regional aviation which electric aviation will enable. We believe the historic methods of identifying new routes and underlying demand are in many ways of limited value. However, they will play a vital role in assessing the foundations of the pre-pandemic market and can serve as a base to further analysis of the post-Covid-19 environment. We have developed a new approach to AAM demand modelling based on historic data of traffic flows on all modes of transport and the new approach to forecasting to fully understand the nature of the market. This approach will underpin the creation of a bespoke strategy for advanced air mobility air traffic. The new AAM demand modelling approach have been adopted to assess traditional aviation forecasting methods and other modes of transports as it considers universal factors such as quality of service, number of frequencies, total elapsed times, etc.
Origin and Destination (O&D) market demand is central to air service development and forecasting. Our O&D analysis looks at passenger flows between two given points (including relevant catchment areas) based on mobility data which undergoes calibration to make the best use of the data. Mobility data takes into account different modes of transport including private cars and public transport, as well as existing traditional aviation (if available on a given route). We then use our in-house AAM demand model for point-to-point traffic forecasting. The AAM Demand Model approach helps quantify market share, predicted passenger traffic, and ultimately helps to forecast route profitability. Our AAM Model estimates the share of demand that a newly introduced AAM service could potentially capture out of the traditional modes of transport.
Core to the demand modelling process we provide scheduling analysis undertaken on an O&D basis. This enables clients to better understand the number of aircraft required on each routes, average aircraft utilisation per route, the number of frequencies required to meet the demand, etc.
AAM Market Assessment
Utilizing mobility data we accurately assess immediate and wider catchment areas for any given point within a country being analyzed. This data gives us spatial resolution in line with local authority boundaries which can be aggregated around a point of interest to mimic catchment areas. We are confident that this gives us sufficient data to extrapolate potential demand across any study area as it is in line with what we currently do for traditional aviation forecasting.
The following image is from a redacted dataset which illustrates some of the information that is available through careful analysis. The graphic interface allows us to quickly identify key flows and investigate potential routes allowing us to home in on key travel patterns.
Advanced Air Mobility Infrastructure
We provide advice on the development of AAM infrastructure ranging from bespoke vertiport concept designs to support in identifying the needs for existing airports.
We have a strong relationship with Pascall+Watson who are world leading architects in the airport sector.
AAM Air Service Development
The air service development process is complex and comprises multiple stages. We conduct detailed benchmarking studies and network gap analysis to determine target markets and airlines. Utilizing AAM demand modelling analysis we accurately forecast route passengers and who is going to switch from other modes of transport, as well as revenue and one way net fares.
Every airline and AAM operator/OEM route forecast would be incomplete without a proper socio-economic market assessment. We have vast experience in developing compelling business cases to present to target airlines/Operators and other clients, supported by detailed market analysis, socio-economic assessment and passenger profiling.
AAM Air/Vertiport Acquisition
To support investing organizations we offer due diligence services where we are able to assess the viability of plans for AAM infrastructure investment.
We use our unique demand modelling capability to verify vendor forecasts and are able to use this information to review infrastructure and business plans.
AAM Carbon Emission Savings
It is apparent that AAM services are going to profoundly change the way how people travel. This will have a tremendous impact on the environment. Carbo emission savings from AAM will play a vital role in leading the way for the public acceptance of AAM. Everyone's awareness of the importance of reducing carbon footprint would be further backed by the fact that new AAM services are a revolutionary tool to make it happen.
Our AAM Demand Model and scheduling tool provide us with a wealth of data that can be further utilized to assess the environmental impact of any new AAM service. We are fully equipped and experienced to accurately assess the environmental impact of mode switching, providing not only carbon emission savings in total, but also net emission savings by mode per passenger. While new AAM vehicles are a 100% carbon emission free, the energy used to charge batteries still uses sources having impact on the environment. Our models include this impact to accurately assess the actual net/net impact of carbon emissions from switching modes on the environment.
AAM Revenue Forecasting
Revenue analysis are a vital part of any air service development activity. To accurately forecast fares for modes of transport that never existed before we need to accept the complexity of the task that carries a significant degree of doubt.
However, there are well defined countermeasures that can help mitigate it. We utilise those countermeasures and combine them with our in-house data and models to accurately assess future possible fares of new AAM services.
The main methods we utilise are proxy and benchmarking analysis against other modes of transport, weighting exercises and coefficient implementation based on other modes of transport including road and rail traffic.
As fare and revenue forecasting is a very iterative process that is usually further optimized by yield management activities, our main task is to provide indicative fares for each route analyzed having in mind that it would be then calibrated by revenue management teams once the service has been introduced.